UWalter Hart, iNhloko Yomhlaba Wonke ye-Olefins e-S&P Global Energy CERA, uthe eNgqungqutheleni Yomhlaba Ye-Petrochemical ukuthi ukuvalwa ngokuphelele kwe-Strait of Hormuz kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu kubakhiqizi bamakhemikhali kaphethiloli base-Asia. Ama-crackers anomusi eMpumalanga Ephakathi azophoqeleka ukuvala, kanti ezinye izitshalo zase-Asia zizonciphisa ukusebenza ngenxa yokuntuleka kokudla.Ukukhiqizwa kwe-ethylene emhlabeni wonke ngo-2026 kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngamathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-22, okulingana no-12% womkhiqizo ka-2025.
Ukungezwani kwezempi eGulf kuphazamise ukuphakelwa kokudla kwe-petrochemical. Cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-29 omthamo we-ethylene waminyaka yonke esifundeni saseGulf okwamanje awusebenzi, kanti ukuvalwa okugcwele e-Iran, eKuwait naseQatar, nakwezinye izitshalo zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi kusebenza cishe ngamanani aphansi kakhulu. Lokhu sekuvele kunciphise umkhiqizo we-ethylene wesifunda cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-15.
IMpumalanga Ephakathi inamathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-35 e-ethylene, lapho cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyisithupha atholakala ngaphandle kwePersian Gulf. Lokhu kushiyaAmathani ayizigidi ezingu-29 e-ethylene etholakala eGulf abonakala ngqoukuhlinzeka ngokuphazamiseka.
Ukushaqeka kochungechunge lokuphakelwa kwempahla kusakazeke kakhulu ngale kweGulf. Ukuntuleka kokudla kwe-naphtha kanye ne-crude kuphoqe izikhungo zamakhemikhali kulo lonke elase-Asia ukuba zinciphise amazinga okusebenza. "Ingxenye engaphezu kwengxenye yamandla omhlaba wonke ithintekile," kuphawula uHart. Ngaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-29 aphazamisekile eGulf, ukuqhekeka kokudla kwempahla kuthinte cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-105 e-ethylene e-Asia.
Ngaphandle kwesifunda saseGulf, uHart ulinganiselaAmathani ayizigidi ezingu-7–8 okukhiqizwa kwe-ethylene emhlabeni jikeleleizolahleka kulo nyaka ngenxa yochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwemikhiqizo. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-ethylene emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-185 ngo-2025, kanti umthamo wayo uphelele ungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-232.
Ingxabano iphazamise kakhulu ukuthunyelwa kwe-polyethylene (PE) kanye ne-ethylene glycol (EG) eMpumalanga Ephakathi e-Asia, yaguqula uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwama-polyolefin, i-polyester kanye ne-PET.
Isidingo se-ethylene sesikhathi eside kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule, yize ngesivinini esiphansi. UHart ubikezela amazinga okusebenza kanye nemivuzo ngeke kuphinde kutholakale ngokugcwele kuze kube sekuqaleni kuya maphakathi nawo-2030, lapho isidingo esikhulayo sifinyelela khona ukungezwa kwamandla amasha.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-10-2026