Umbono Wemakethe Yokuthumela Ngaphandle Yepulasitiki Ye-Polystyrene (PS) ka-2025: Amathrendi, Izinselele kanye Namathuba

Ukubuka Konke Kwemakethe

Imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokuthumela ngaphandle i-polystyrene (PS) ingena esigabeni soguquko ngo-2025, lapho amanani okuhweba abikezelwe afinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-8.5 anenani elingama-$12.3 billion. Lokhu kumele ukukhula kwe-CAGR okungu-3.8% kusukela emazingeni ka-2023, okuqhutshwa amaphethini esidingo aguqukayo kanye nokuguqulwa kabusha kweketanga lokuphakelwa kwesifunda.

Izigaba Eziyinhloko Zemakethe:

• I-GPPS (i-Crystal PS): 55% yenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe
• Ama-HIPS (Umthelela Omkhulu): 35% wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe
• I-EPS (i-Expanded PS): 10% futhi ikhula ngokushesha ku-6.2% CAGR

Izinguquko Zokuhweba Zesifunda

I-Asia-Pacific (72% yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni jikelele)

1. IShayina:
   • Ukugcina isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle esingu-45% naphezu kwemithetho yezemvelo
   • Ukwengezwa kwamandla amasha ezifundazweni zaseZhejiang naseGuangdong (i-MT eyizigidi ezingu-1.2 ngonyaka)
   • Amanani e-FOB alindeleke ku-$1,150-$1,300/MT
2. INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia:
   • IVietnam neMalaysia bavela njengabaphakeli abahlukile
   • Ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okungu-18% kulindeleke ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kokuhweba
   • Intengo yokuncintisana ku-$1,100-$1,250/MT

IMpumalanga Ephakathi (15% yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe)

• I-Saudi Arabia ne-UAE zisebenzisa izinzuzo ze-feedstock
• I-Sadara complex entsha ithuthukisa umkhiqizo
• Amanani e-CFR Europe ayancintisana ku-$1,350-$1,450/MT

IYurophu (8% yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe)

• Gxila kumamaki akhethekile kanye ne-PS ephinde yasetshenziswa
• Umthamo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe wehla ngo-3% ngenxa yemikhawulo yokukhiqiza
• Intengo ye-premium yamamaki azinzile (+20-25%)

Abashayeli Bezidingo Nezinselele

Imikhakha Yokukhula:

1. Ukuqamba Okusha Kokupakisha
   • Isidingo se-GPPS ecacile kakhulu ekupakisheni ukudla okuphezulu (+9% ngonyaka)
   • I-EPS eqhubekayo yezixazululo zokupakisha ezivikelayo
2. Ukwanda Kokwakha
   • Isidingo sokufakwa kwe-EPS ezimakethe zase-Asia naseMpumalanga Ephakathi
   • Izinhlelo zokusebenza zekhonkrithi ezilula ezikhulisa ngo-12%
3. Ama-elekthronikhi Abathengi
   • Ama-HIPS ezindawo zokugcina izinto zikagesi kanye nemishini yehhovisi

Izithiyo Zemakethe:

• Ukuvinjelwa kwepulasitiki okusetshenziswa kanye kuphela okuthinta u-18% wezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-PS zendabuko
• Ukuguquguquka kwezinto ezingavuthiwe (amanani e-benzene ashintshashintsha ngo-15-20%)
• Izindleko zezokuthutha zikhuphuka ngo-25-30% emizileni ebalulekile yokuthumela

Ukuguqulwa Kokuzinza

Imithelela Yokulawula:

• Isiqondiso se-EU SUP sinciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwe-PS ngo-150,000 MT minyaka yonke
• Izinhlelo Zomthwalo Wokukhiqiza Owengeziwe (i-EPR) ezinezela u-8-12% ezindlekweni
• Imithetho emisha yokuqukethwe okuphinde kwasetshenziswa (ubuncane obungu-30% ezimakethe ezibalulekile)

Izixazululo Ezivelayo:

• Izitshalo zokusebenzisa kabusha amakhemikhali ziyafika ku-inthanethi eYurophu/e-Asia
• Intuthuko ye-PS esekelwe ku-bio (amaphrojekthi ayi-5 okuhlola alindeleke ngo-2025)
• i-rPS (i-PS ephinde yasetshenziswa) ye-premium ngo-15-20% ngaphezu kwezinto ezingeyona i-virgin

Umbono Wenqubomgomo Yentengo Nokuhweba

Izitayela Zamanani:

• Amanani okuthumela kwamanye amazwe ase-Asia abikezela ku-$1,100-$1,400/MT ububanzi
• Amabanga akhethekile aseYurophu abiza u-$1,600-$1,800/MT
• Amanani okungenisa alinganayo eLatin America angu-$1,500-$1,650/MT

Ukuthuthukiswa Kwenqubomgomo Yezohwebo:

• Imisebenzi engaba khona yokulwa nokulahla izimpahla ku-PS waseShayina ezimakethe eziningi
• Izidingo ezintsha zemibhalo yokuzinza
• Izivumelwano zokuhweba ezikhethekile ezisekela abahlinzeki be-ASEAN

Izincomo Zamasu

1. Isu Lomkhiqizo:
   • Shintshela kuzinhlelo zokusebenza ezinenani eliphakeme (ezokwelapha, ze-elekthronikhi)
   • Thuthukisa amafomula ahambisana nezinga lokudla
   • Tshala imali kuma-PS aguquliwe ngamaphrofayili angcono okuzinza
2. Ukuhlukahluka Kwezindawo:
   • Nweba ezimakethe zokukhula zase-Afrika naseNingizimu Asia
   • Sungula ubambiswano lokusebenzisa kabusha eYurophu/eNyakatho Melika
   • Sebenzisa ama-FTA e-ASEAN ukuthola izinzuzo zentela
3. Ubuhle Bokusebenza:
   • Lungiselela ezokuthutha ngokusebenzisa amasu okusondelana
   • Sebenzisa ukulandelela kwedijithali ukuze kulandelwe ukusimama
   • Thuthukisa izinhlelo ezivaliwe zezimakethe ze-premium

Imakethe ye-PS yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025 iletha izinselelo ezinkulu kanye namathuba. Izinkampani eziphumelela ekushintsheni kokuzinza ngenkathi zisebenzisa izinhlelo zokusebenza ezintsha zizobekwa endaweni yokuthola isabelo semakethe kule ndawo eshintshayo.