Isifunda esizothwala kanzima ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe ngo-2024 yiSoutheast Asia, ngakho-ke iSoutheast Asia ibekwa eqhulwini kumbono ka-2025. Ezingeni lesifunda lokuthekelisa ngo-2024, indawo yokuqala ye-LLDPE, i-LDPE, ifomu eliyinhloko le-PP, kanye ne-block copolymerization iseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ngamanye amazwi, indawo eyinhloko yokuthekelisa yezigaba ezi-4 kweziyisi-6 zemikhiqizo ye-polyolefin iseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
Izinzuzo: INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia iyisiqephu samanzi ne-China futhi inomlando omude wokubambisana. Ngo-1976, i-ASEAN yasayina iSivumelwano Se-Amity Nokubambisana eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuthula okungapheli, ubungane nokubambisana phakathi kwamazwe akulesi sifunda, futhi i-China yajoyina ngokusemthethweni iSivumelwano ngo-Okthoba 8, 2003. Ubudlelwano obuhle babeka isisekelo sokuhwebelana. Okwesibili, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia eminyakeni yamuva, ngaphandle kweVietnam Longshan Petrochemical, izitshalo ezimbalwa ezinkulu ze-pololefin ezifakwe ekukhiqizeni, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziphansi eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, okunciphisa ukukhathazeka kokuhlinzekwa, kanye nesidingo sazo. igebe lizoba khona isikhathi eside. I-Southeast Asia futhi iyisifunda esithandwayo sokwanda kokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yabathengisi baseShayina, ngokuzinza okuhle kakhulu.
Ukungalungi: Nakuba i-Southeast Asia isebenzisana kahle ne-China iyonke, ukungqubuzana kwesifunda okungatheni kusengagwemeki. Iminyaka eminingi, i-China izibophezele ekukhuthazeni Ikhodi Yokuziphatha eSouth China Sea ukuze kuqinisekiswe izintshisekelo ezifanayo zazo zonke izinhlangothi. Okwesibili, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kuyanda emhlabeni wonke, njenge-Indonesia ekuqaleni kukaDisemba yethula uphenyo lokulwa nokulahlwa kwama-polypropylene homopolymers avela eSaudi Arabia, Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand naseVietnam. Lesi sinyathelo, esiklanyelwe ukuvikela izinkampani ezifuywayo kanye nesicelo sezinkampani zasekhaya, akubhekiseli eChina kuphela, kodwa amazwe omthombo oyinhloko wokungenisa impahla. Nakuba ingeke ikuvimbele ngokuphelele ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, akunakugwenywa ukuthi izintengo zokungenisa ezweni zizokwehliswa ngokwezinga elithile, futhi i-China kufanele futhi iqaphele mayelana nophenyo olumelene nokulahlwa kwempahla e-Indonesia ngo-2025.
Sishilo ngenhla ukuthi izigaba ezine kweziyisithupha eziphezulu zemikhiqizo ye-polyolefin zithathwa yiNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, kuyilapho imikhiqizo emibili esele isendaweni yokuqala yi-Afrika, indawo okuyiwa kuyo enenani elikhulu lokuthunyelwa kwe-HDPE kwamanye amazwe, kanye neNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia, indawo okuyiwa kuyo enemikhulu kakhulu. inombolo yezinye izinhlobo zokuthunyelwa kwe-PP. Kodwa-ke, uma kuqhathaniswa neNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia, i-Afrika ithatha indawo yesibili ye-LDPE kanye ne-block copolymerization. Ngakho-ke abahleli babeke i-Afrika endaweni yesibili ohlwini lwezindawo ezibalulekile.
Izinzuzo: Kuyaziwa ukuthi iShayina inokubambisana okujulile ne-Afrika, futhi sekukaningi isiza i-Afrika. I-China ne-Afrika ikubiza ngokuthi ukusebenzisana kwamasu okuhlanganisa konke, okunesisekelo esijulile sobungani. Njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kuyanda emhlabeni jikelele, ngalesi sikhathi, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi i-Afrika ngeke ilandele ijubane lamazwe aseNtshonalanga ukuthatha izinyathelo ezinjalo ngokumelene neChina, futhi mayelana nesimo sayo sokuhlinzeka nokufunwa, iyakwenza. ukungakusekeli ukuqaliswa kwezinyathelo ezinjalo njengamanje. Umthamo wokukhiqiza we-polypropylene e-Afrika njengamanje umi kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.21 ngonyaka, okuhlanganisa amathani angu-830,000 ngonyaka eNigeria eqale ngokusakazwa kulo nyaka. Umthamo wokukhiqiza we-polyethylene wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.8/ngonyaka, lapho i-HDPE iphelele amathani angu-838,000/ngonyaka. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo sase-Indonesia, amandla okukhiqiza e-PP e-Afrika aphindwe izikhathi ezingu-2.36 kuphela kune-Indonesia, kodwa inani labantu liphindwe izikhathi ezi-5 kune-Indonesia, kodwa kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi izinga lobuphofu lase-Afrika liphezulu uma liqhathaniswa ne-Indonesia, futhi amandla okusebenzisa ehlisiwe ngokwemvelo. Kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kuseyimakethe enamandla amakhulu.
Ububi: Imboni yamabhange ase-Afrika ayithuthukisiwe, futhi izindlela zokukhokhelana zinomkhawulo. Kukhona njalo izinhlangothi ezimbili kuhlamvu lwemali ngalunye, kanti izinzuzo ze-Afrika nazo ziyizimbi zayo, ngoba amandla esikhathi esizayo asadinga isikhathi sokufakazela, kodwa isidingo samanje sisalinganiselwe, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla kusenamandla anganele okusebenzisa. Futhi i-Afrika ithenga kakhulu emazweni angaphandle eMpumalanga Ephakathi, okushiya izwe lethu linamathuba amancane. Okwesibili, ngenxa yomthamo olinganiselwe we-Afrika wokubhekana nemfucuza yepulasitiki, phakathi neminyaka edlule, inqwaba yamazwe akhiphe imingcele yepulasitiki kanye nokuvinjelwa. Njengamanje, amazwe angama-34 esewonke akhiphe umthetho wokuvinjelwa kwezikhwama zepulasitiki ezisetshenziswa kanye.
ENingizimu Melika, i-China ikakhulukazi ithumela i-polypropylene, kuphethini yokuthekelisa kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba kulo nyaka, iNingizimu Melika isendaweni yesibili yokuthunyelwa kwe-PP okuyinhloko, indawo yesithathu yezinye izinhlobo zokuthunyelwa kwe-PP, kanye nendawo yesithathu ye-block copolymerization. ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Ku-polypropylene ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuphakathi kokuthathu okuphezulu. Kuyabonakala ukuthi iNingizimu Melika ibambe isikhundla ekuthengisweni kwe-polypropylene yaseChina.
Izinzuzo: Amazwe aseNingizimu Melika kanye neChina cishe akukho ukungqubuzana okujulile okusele emlandweni, iChina neBrazil kwezolimo kanye nokusebenzisana kwamandla aluhlaza kuya ngokuya kusondele, umlingani oyinhloko waseNingizimu Melika i-United States selokhu uTrump eqala ukubusa ukuze abeke intela yezimpahla zomhlaba wonke. ukuhlukana okuthile ekuhwebeni kweNingizimu Melika nohwebo lwayo. Isinyathelo samazwe aseNingizimu Melika sokubambisana nezwe lethu siyakhula usuku nosuku. Okwesibili, isilinganiso sentengo yemakethe eNingizimu Melika siphakeme kunesilinganiso senani lemakethe ezweni lakithi isikhathi eside, futhi kunamathuba amakhulu e-arbitrage yesifunda iWindows enenzuzo enkulu.
Ukungalungi: NjengeNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, iNingizimu Melika nayo inokuvikela kwezohwebo, futhi kulo nyaka iBrazil ihole ekusebenziseni amanani entengo ye-polyolefin engenisiwe isuka ku-12.6% yaya ku-20%. Inhloso yeBrazil iyafana neye-Indonesia, ukuvikela imboni yayo. Okwesibili, iShayina neBrazil, impumalanga nentshonalanga kanye nenkabazwe esenyakatho neseningizimu yalezi zibili zanyakaza, ibanga elide, umkhumbi omude. Ngokuvamile kuthatha izinsuku ezingama-25-30 ukuhamba usuka ogwini olusentshonalanga yeNingizimu Melika ukuya eChina, kanye nezinsuku ezingama-30-35 ukusuka ogwini olusempumalanga yeNingizimu Melika ukuya eChina. Ngakho-ke, iwindi lokuthekelisa lithinteka kakhulu yimpahla yasolwandle. Lo mqhudelwano unamandla ngokulinganayo, uholwa yi-United States neCanada, kulandele iMiddle East neSouth Korea.
Nakuba abahleli bengagcini ngokubhala amandla kodwa nobuthakathaka bezifunda ezinkulu ezithumela impahla kwamanye amazwe, basabala njengezindawo eziphezulu zethemba. Isizathu esisodwa esibalulekile sisekelwe kudatha yomlando yokuthekelisa yangonyaka odlule ngisho neminyaka yakamuva. Idatha eyisisekelo, ngokwezinga elithile, imele ukwenzeka kwamaqiniso, futhi empeleni kuyinqubo ende ukuze kwenzeke izinguquko ezibalulekile. Uma isimo sizohlehliswa phakathi nesikhathi esifushane, umhleli ukholelwa ukuthi lezi zimo ezilandelayo kufanele zihlangatshezwe:
I-1) Izingxabano ezinodlame esifundeni, ezihlanganisa kodwa ezingagcini nje ngokugqashuka kwempi eshisayo, ukukhuphuka kokuzihlukanisa kwezohwebo nezinye izinyathelo ezinqala.
2) Izinguquko ezinkulu ekuhlinzekeni kwesifunda zizohlehlisa ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo, kodwa lokhu akukwazi ukuqedwa ngesikhathi esifushane. Ngokuvamile kuthatha isikhathi eside kusukela ekukhiqizweni kokuqala kuya ekusakazeni okuphelele komkhiqizo emakethe.
3) Ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kanye nezithiyo zentela ziqondiswe eShayina kuphela. Ngokungafani nezinyathelo zase-Indonesia naseBrazil, uma amanani entengo ebhekiswe kakhulu ezimpahleni zaseShayina kuphela, kunokuba kukho konke ukungenisa, njengoba i-Indonesia neBrazil benzile kulo nyaka, khona-ke ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kuzobhekana nokushaywa okuthile, futhi izimpahla zizodluliselwa phakathi. izifunda.
Lezi zimo empeleni ziyizingozi ezimbi kakhulu ekuhwebeni komhlaba namuhla. Nakuba lezi zimo ezingenhla zingakahlangatshezwana ngokugcwele namanje, ukubambisana komhlaba wonke kusahlangene futhi kufanele kusetshenziswe ngezindlela ezahlukene. Kodwa ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kanye nezingxabano zesifunda sezivame kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva. Ukugcinwa kanye nenqubekelaphambili ezindaweni ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kumele futhi kuqashwe ngeso elibukhali intuthuko kanye namathuba kwezinye izifunda.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-20-2024