Isifunda esizothwala umthwalo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2024 yiNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ngakho-ke iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ibekwa phambili embonweni ka-2025. Esigabeni sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe sesifunda ngo-2024, indawo yokuqala ye-LLDPE, i-LDPE, ifomu eliyinhloko le-PP, kanye ne-block copolymerization yiNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ngamanye amazwi, indawo eyinhloko yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe yezinhlobo ezine kweziyisithupha ezinkulu zemikhiqizo ye-polyolefin yiNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
Izinzuzo: INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia iyisiqeshana samanzi neShayina futhi inomlando omude wokubambisana. Ngo-1976, i-ASEAN yasayina iSivumelwano Sobungane Nokubambisana eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukukhuthaza ukuthula okuhlala njalo, ubungane nokubambisana phakathi kwamazwe akulesi sifunda, kanti iShayina yajoyina ngokusemthethweni iSivumelwano ngo-Okthoba 8, 2003. Ubudlelwano obuhle babeka isisekelo sokuhweba. Okwesibili, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngaphandle kweVietnam Longshan Petrochemical, zimbalwa izitshalo ezinkulu ze-polyolefin eziye zafakwa ekukhiqizweni, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale iphansi eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, okunciphisa ukukhathazeka kokuhlinzekwa, futhi igebe layo lesidingo lizoba khona isikhathi eside. INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia futhi iyisifunda esithandwayo sokwanda kokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo kwabathengisi baseShayina, ngokuqina okuhle kakhulu.
Okubi: Nakuba iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia izwana kahle neShayina iyonke, ukungezwani kwesifunda okuncane kusalokhu kungenakugwenywa. Sekuyiminyaka eminingi, iShayina izibophezele ekukhuthazeni iKhodi Yokuziphatha eSouth China Sea ukuqinisekisa izintshisekelo ezifanayo zabo bonke abathintekayo. Okwesibili, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kuyanda emhlabeni wonke, njenge-Indonesia ekuqaleni kukaDisemba yaqala uphenyo lokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ngokumelene nama-polypropylene homopolymers avela eSaudi Arabia, ePhilippines, eNingizimu Korea, eMalaysia, eShayina, eSingapore, eThailand naseVietnam. Lesi sinyathelo, esenzelwe ukuvikela izinkampani zasekhaya futhi ngesicelo sezinkampani zasekhaya, asihlose iShayina yodwa, kodwa amazwe ayinhloko okungenisa izimpahla kwamanye amazwe. Nakuba singenakukuvimbela ngokuphelele ukungeniswa kwezimpahla kwamanye amazwe, akunakugwenywa ukuthi amanani okungenisa azoncishiswa ngezinga elithile, futhi iShayina kufanele futhi iqaphele uphenyo lokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma e-Indonesia ngo-2025.
Sishilo ngenhla ukuthi izigaba ezine kweziyisithupha eziphezulu zemikhiqizo ye-polyolefin zihlala eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, kanti eminye imikhiqizo emibili ithatha indawo yokuqala yi-Afrika, indawo enenani elikhulu kakhulu lokuthunyelwa kwe-HDPE, kanye neNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia, indawo enenani elikhulu kakhulu lezinye izinhlobo zokuthunyelwa kwe-PP. Kodwa-ke, uma kuqhathaniswa neNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia, i-Afrika ithatha indawo yesibili ye-LDPE kanye ne-block copolymerization. Ngakho-ke abahleli babeke i-Afrika endaweni yesibili ohlwini lwezindawo ezibaluleke kakhulu.
Izinzuzo: Kwaziwa kahle ukuthi iShayina inokuhlanganiswa okujulile kokubambisana ne-Afrika, futhi isize i-Afrika kaningi. IShayina ne-Afrika bayibiza ngokuthi ukubambisana okubanzi okunesisekelo esijulile sobungani. Njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kuyanda emhlabeni jikelele, okwamanje, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi i-Afrika ngeke ilandele ijubane laseNtshonalanga ukuthatha izinyathelo ezinjalo ngokumelene neShayina, futhi ngokwesimo sayo sokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo, ayisekeli ukuqaliswa kwezinyathelo ezinjalo njengamanje. Umthamo wokukhiqiza we-polypropylene e-Afrika okwamanje umi kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.21 ngonyaka, kufaka phakathi isitshalo samathani angu-830,000 ngonyaka eNigeria esaqala ukusebenza kulo nyaka. Umthamo wokukhiqiza i-polyethylene ungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.8 ngonyaka, lapho i-HDPE iyonke ingamathani angu-838,000 ngonyaka. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo sase-Indonesia, amandla okukhiqiza i-PP e-Afrika aphindwe izikhathi ezingu-2.36 kuphela kune-Indonesia, kodwa inani labantu bakhona liphindwe izikhathi ezi-5 kune-Indonesia, kodwa kufanelekile ukusho ukuthi izinga lobuphofu e-Afrika liphezulu uma liqhathaniswa ne-Indonesia, futhi amandla okusebenzisa ancishisiwe ngokwemvelo. Kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kuseyimakethe enamandla amakhulu.
Okubi: Imboni yamabhange ase-Afrika ayithuthukiswanga, futhi izindlela zokuxazulula izinkinga zilinganiselwe. Kuhlala kunezinhlangothi ezimbili kuzo zonke izinhlamvu zemali, futhi izinzuzo ze-Afrika nazo ziyizinkinga zayo, ngoba amandla esikhathi esizayo asadinga isikhathi sokufakazela, kodwa isidingo samanje sisalinganiselwe, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla kusenamandla okusebenzisa anele. Futhi i-Afrika ingenisa okuningi kusuka eMpumalanga Ephakathi, okushiya izwe lethu linamathuba alinganiselwe. Okwesibili, ngenxa yamandla alinganiselwe e-Afrika okubhekana nemfucuza yepulasitiki, eminyakeni edlule, amazwe amaningi akhiphe imikhawulo kanye nokuvinjelwa kwepulasitiki. Njengamanje, amazwe angama-34 akhiphe ukuvinjelwa kwezikhwama zepulasitiki ezisetshenziswa kanye.
ENingizimu Melika, iShayina ithumela kakhulu i-polypropylene kwamanye amazwe, ngendlela yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba kulo nyaka, iNingizimu Melika isendaweni yesibili yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe i-PP, indawo yesithathu kwezinye izinhlobo zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe i-PP, kanye nendawo yesithathu yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe i-block copolymerization. Ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe i-polypropylene kuphakathi kwezintathu eziphezulu. Kungabonakala ukuthi iNingizimu Melika ithatha isikhundla ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe i-polypropylene eShayina.
Izinzuzo: Amazwe aseNingizimu Melika kanye neShayina cishe azikho izingxabano ezinkulu ezisele emlandweni, iShayina neBrazil kwezolimo kanye nokubambisana kwamandla aluhlaza kusondelene kakhulu, umlingani oyinhloko waseNingizimu Melika i-United States selokhu uTrump ethatha izintambo zokubeka intela ezimpahleni zomhlaba wonke nakho kubangele ukungezwani okuthile ekuhwebeni kweNingizimu Melika ngokuhweba kwayo. Isinyathelo samazwe aseNingizimu Melika sokubambisana nezwe lethu naso siyakhula usuku nosuku. Okwesibili, intengo yemakethe emaphakathi eNingizimu Melika iphakeme kunentengo yemakethe emaphakathi ezweni lethu isikhathi eside, futhi kunamathuba amakhulu e-arbitrage yesifunda Windows enenzuzo enkulu.
Okubi: NjengeNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, iNingizimu Melika nayo inokuvikelwa kwezohwebo, futhi kulo nyaka iBrazil yahola ekuqaliseni intela ye-polyolefin engenisiwe kusukela ku-12.6% kuya ku-20%. Inhloso yeBrazil ifana neye-Indonesia, ukuvikela imboni yayo. Okwesibili, iShayina neBrazil, empumalanga nasentshonalanga kanye nezingxenye ezisenyakatho naseningizimu zomkhumbi omude, ohamba ibanga elide. Ngokuvamile kuthatha izinsuku ezingama-25-30 ukuhamba ukusuka ogwini olusentshonalanga yeNingizimu Melika ukuya eShayina, kanye nezinsuku ezingama-30-35 ukuhamba ukusuka ogwini olusempumalanga yeNingizimu Melika ukuya eShayina. Ngakho-ke, ifasitela lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe lithintwa kakhulu yimpahla yasolwandle. Umncintiswano unamandla ngokulinganayo, uholwa yi-United States neCanada, kulandelwe yiMpumalanga Ephakathi neNingizimu Korea.
Nakuba abahleli bengabhali nje kuphela amandla kodwa nobuthakathaka bezifunda eziyinhloko zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, basabala njengezindawo ezikhula phambili zethemba. Isizathu esisodwa esibalulekile sisekelwe kudatha yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe yomlando yangonyaka odlule ngisho neminyaka yamuva nje. Idatha eyisisekelo, ngezinga elithile, imelela ukwenzeka kwamaqiniso, futhi empeleni kuyinqubo ende yokuthi kwenzeke izinguquko ezibalulekile. Uma isimo sizoguqulwa esikhathini esifushane, umhleli ukholelwa ukuthi lezi zimo ezilandelayo kumele zihlangatshezwe:
1) Izingxabano ezinobudlova esifundeni, okuhlanganisa kodwa kungagcini ngokuqubuka kwempi eshisayo, ukwanda kokuzihlukanisa kwezohwebo kanye nezinye izinyathelo eziqinile.
2) Izinguquko ezinkulu ekuhlinzekweni kwesifunda zizobuyisela emuva ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo, kodwa lokhu ngeke kuqedwe ngesikhathi esifushane. Ngokuvamile kuthatha isikhathi eside kusukela ekukhiqizweni kokuqala kuya ekusakazweni komkhiqizo ngokugcwele emakethe.
3) Ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kanye nezithiyo zentela kuhloselwe eShayina kuphela. Ngokungafani nezinyathelo zase-Indonesia naseBrazil, uma intela ihloselwe kakhulu izimpahla zaseShayina kuphela, kunokuba iqondiswe kuzo zonke izinto ezingeniswayo, njengoba i-Indonesia neBrazil zenze kulo nyaka, khona-ke ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla zaseShayina kuzobhekana nobunzima obuthile, futhi izimpahla zizodluliselwa phakathi kwezifunda.
Lezi zimo empeleni ziyizingozi ezinkulu kakhulu ekuhwebeni komhlaba namuhla. Nakuba lezi zimo ezingenhla zingakahlangatshezwani ngokugcwele okwamanje, ukubambisana komhlaba wonke kusaxhumene futhi kufanele kusetshenziswe ngezindlela ezahlukene. Kodwa ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kanye nezingxabano zesifunda empeleni kuye kwaba yinto evamile eminyakeni yamuva nje. Ukugcinwa kanye nentuthuko ezindaweni zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kumele kuqashwe eduze ukuze kutholakale intuthuko namathuba kwezinye izifunda.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba-20-2024