I-Polycarbonate (PC) I-Plastic Raw Material Export Outlook yemakethe ka-2025

Isifinyezo esiphezulu

Imakethe yokuthekelisa yepulasitiki ye-polycarbonate (PC) yomhlaba wonke ilungele ukuguqulwa okubalulekile ngo-2025, iqhutshwa amaphethini esidingo avelayo, igunya lokusimama, kanye nokuguquguquka kokuhweba kwezwe. Njengepulasitiki yobunjiniyela esebenza kahle kakhulu, i-PC iyaqhubeka nokubamba iqhaza elibalulekile kwezezimoto, ze-elekthronikhi, kanye nezicelo zezokwelapha, kanti imakethe yokuthekelisa yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku- $ 5.8 billion ekupheleni konyaka ka-2025, ikhula ku-CAGR ka-4.2% ukusuka ngo-2023.

Abashayeli Bemakethe namathrendi

1. Ukukhula Kwesidingo Esikhethekile Somkhakha

• I-Electric Vehicle Boom: Ukuthunyelwa kwe-PC kwezingxenye ze-EV (izimbobo zokushaja, izindlu zamabhethri, iziqondiso ezikhanyayo) kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule ngo-18% YoY.
• Ukwandiswa Kwengqalasizinda ye-5G: Ukunyuka okungama-25% kwesidingo sezingxenye ze-PC ezivama kakhulu kwezokuxhumana
• I-Medical Device Innovation: Ukuthengisa okukhulayo kwe-PC yezinga lezokwelapha yamathuluzi okuhlinza nemishini yokuxilonga

2. I-Regional Export Dynamics

I-Asia-Pacific (i-65% yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni jikelele)

• I-China: Ukugcina ukubusa ngesabelo semakethe esingu-38% kodwa sibhekene nezithiyo zohwebo
• I-South Korea: Ivela njengomholi wekhwalithi ngokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwe-12% ku-PC ephezulu
• I-Japan: Igxile kumamaki e-PC akhethekile wezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-optical

I-Europe (18% yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle)

• I-Germany ne-Netherlands ehamba phambili ekuthengisweni kwe-PC esebenza kahle kakhulu
• Ukwenyuka okungu-15% kokuthunyelwa kabusha kwe-PC (rPC) ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zomnotho eziyindilinga

I-North America (12% yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle)

• Ukuthunyelwa kwe-US kushintshela e-Mexico ngaphansi kwemibandela ye-USMCA
• I-Canada evela njengomhlinzeki wezinye izindlela ze-PC ezisekelwe ku-bio

I-Outlook yohwebo kanye nentengo

1. Izindleko ze-Raw Material

• Izintengo ze-Benzene zibikezela ku-$850-$950/MT, ezithonya izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-PC
• Izintengo zase-Asia zokuthekelisa ze-FOB kulindeleke ukuthi zifinyelele ku-$2,800-$3,200/MT ngebanga elijwayelekile
• Amaphrimiyamu e-PC yezinga lezokwelapha azofinyelela ku-25-30% ngaphezu kwesilinganiso

2. Imithelela Yenqubomgomo Yezohwebo

• Izintengo ezingaba ngu-8-12% ekuthunyelweni kwe-PC yaseShayina ku-EU naseNyakatho Melika
• Izitifiketi ezintsha zokusimama ziyadingeka ekuthengisweni kwe-Europe (EPD, Cradle-to-Cradle)
• Ukungezwani kwezohwebo kwe-US-China kudala amathuba kubathumeli bangaphandle base-Southeast Asia

I-Competitive Landscape

Amaqhinga Abalulekile Okuthumela ango-2025

1. Ubungcweti bomkhiqizo: Ukuthuthukisa amamaki angavimbeli ilangabi nasezingeni eliphezulu
2. Ukugxila Kokusimama: Ukutshala imali kubuchwepheshe bokusebenzisa kabusha amakhemikhali
3. Ukuhlukahluka Kwesifunda: Isungula ukukhiqizwa emazweni ase-ASEAN ukuze kudlule amanani

Izinselelo Namathuba

Izinselele Ezinkulu

• 15-20% ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokuthobela i-REACH kanye nezitifiketi ze-FDA
• Ukuncintisana okuvela kwezinye izinto (PMMA, modified PET)
• Ukuphazamiseka kokuhamba koLwandle Olubomvu kanye nasePanama Canal okuthinta izindleko zokuthumela

Amathuba Avelayo

• I-Middle East ingena emakethe ngamakhono amasha okukhiqiza
• I-Afrika njengemakethe yokungenisa ekhulayo ye-PC yebanga lokwakha
• Umnotho oyindilinga udala imakethe eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama- $ 1.2 yokuthekelisa kabusha kwe-PC

Isiphetho Nezincomo

Imakethe yokuthekelisa ye-PC ka-2025 iveza izinselelo namathuba abalulekile. Abathumela kwamanye amazwe kufanele:

1. Hlanganisa izisekelo zokukhiqiza ukuze unciphise ubungozi bezwe
2. Tshala imali ekukhiqizeni okusimeme ukuze uhlangabezane namazinga e-EU kanye naseNyakatho Melika
3. Thuthukisa amabanga akhethekile emikhakheni ye-EV ne-5G ekhula kakhulu
4. Sungula ubudlelwano nabasebenza kabusha ukuze uzuze kumathrendi omnotho oyindilinga

Ngokuhlela kwamasu okufanelekile, abathumeli be-PC bangazulazula endaweni yokuhweba eyinkimbinkimbi ka-2025 ngenkathi besebenzisa isidingo esikhulayo sezinhlelo zokusebenza zesizukulwane esilandelayo.